A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
